It’s been a record year for dengue illnesses, and researchers have been working to identify the causes. A recent study reveals that climate change is responsible for 19% of the current global dengue load. Moreover, it might increase to 60% if nothing is done to counteract global warming.
Dengue is a viral disease transmitted by mosquito bites. While most individuals who become ill with it recover within a week or two. Approximately one in every twenty people will have severe symptoms such as shock and internal bleeding, which can be fatal. There are also no specific treatments for this condition.
With that in mind, it’s not good news that the global number of dengue cases has increased in 2024.
The new study, which was presented recently at the Annual Meeting of the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. The study which has yet to be peer-reviewed demonstrates that climate change and rising temperatures are one of the major drivers of the current surge in cases.
Senior author Erin Mordecai
We looked at data on dengue incidence and climate variation across 21 countries in Asia and the Americas and found that there is a clear and direct relationship between rising temperatures and rising infections,
Other factors that can contribute to dengue epidemics include other climate-related phenomena such as rainfall and the types of viruses that are circulating. In addition, socioeconomic factors such as economic conditions and population density.
Despite accounting for such factors, the team discovered a link with higher temperatures. Moreover, adding that earlier research has revealed that dengue-carrying mosquitoes release more virus as temperatures rise to between 20°C and 29°C (68°F and 84°F).
Globally, the increase could be up to 60%. Reducing to 40% in the most optimistic climate modeling scenario, in which carbon emissions are drastically reduced.
Despite how high those forecasts appear, the researchers believe they are likely an underestimate; they were unable to generate predictions for areas with limited data but where dengue is still widespread, such as regions of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
It’s particularly difficult to make projections in areas where dengue hasn’t previously been a concern, such as the continental US. The island territory of Puerto Rico has had the most instances, although outbreaks have also been reported in Florida and California.
Mordecai added
But as more and more of the U.S. moves into that optimal temperature range for dengue, the number of locally acquired infections will likely rise, though it’s too early to say how that will affect the global burden
